A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
